2024: A Year of Contrasts in the Art Market

In 2024, the international art market experienced its second consecutive year of declining sales, particularly in the auction sector. Global crises, wars, inflation, and economic uncertainties led many collectors to adopt a cautious approach, often withholding top-tier artworks from sale unless necessary. However, Germany presented a different picture, with the downturn being less severe than anticipated.

German auction houses witnessed a dichotomy: some buyers were risk-averse, bidding only at the lower estimates, while others engaged in enthusiastic bidding wars for coveted pieces. Compared to major international players like Christie’s and Sotheby’s, German houses reported smaller losses year-over-year. Notably, the number of artworks surpassing the million-euro mark increased. The most expensive piece sold at a German auction was Alexej von Jawlensky’s Spanish Dancer (1909), which fetched €7 million at Ketterer in Munich. Van Ham Kunstauktionen in Cologne sold Gerhard Richter’s Abstract Painting (1986) for €4.2 million, marking its best overall result since the company’s inception.

The German art market experienced a moderate recovery from the pandemic’s impact in 2024. According to the annual report by the Federal Association of German Galleries and Art Dealers (BDGK), total sales increased by approximately 5 to 7% compared to 2023. Despite economic challenges, the art market demonstrated resilience, with many galleries adopting digital strategies and innovative exhibitions to attract new audiences.

Stability in Names, Innovation in Approaches

Globally, there was a noticeable shift towards mid- and lower-priced artworks. While high-end sales declined, the market for more affordable pieces remained vibrant. This trend influenced galleries to focus their presentations, especially at art fairs, on more accessible artworks.

Renowned artists continued to be seen as solid investments. Collectors favored established names, with modern and contemporary art maintaining popularity. American post-war artists like Andy Warhol, Kenneth Noland, and Robert Ryman remained in demand, alongside German artists such as Georg Baselitz, Gerhard Richter, and Günther Uecker.

France and Switzerland: Auction Highlights

Germany, France, and Switzerland sustained their roles as key players in the European art market. France, in particular, stood out, ranking second in Europe by transaction volume. While traditional live auction revenues declined, online art auctions saw significant growth.

In France, Artcurial and Christie’s achieved record-breaking sales. Artcurial Paris auctioned Auguste Rodin’s sculpture Le Penseur for €9.8 million. Seven of the ten most expensive artworks sold in France were through Christie’s, including Claude Monet’s Nymphéas, which fetched €15.3 million at Christie’s Hong Kong.

In Switzerland, Sotheby’s Geneva garnered attention by selling Alberto Giacometti’s rare sculpture L’Homme qui marche for CHF 12.5 million.

From Cologne to Karlsruhe to Basel and Paris: Major Art Fairs Reflect

Germany’s three major art fairs reported satisfaction in 2024. Art Cologne hosted approximately 170 galleries from 24 countries, attracting around 45,000 visitors. Notable sales ranged from five- to six-figure sums, featuring artists like Gerhard Baselitz at Thaddaeus Ropac and Anne Imhof at Daniel Buchholz. The fair provided a platform for emerging galleries and reaffirmed its status as a significant meeting point in the global art scene.

Art Düsseldorf showcased over 100 galleries from 17 countries, emphasizing themes such as “Future Bodies,” “Photography & Identity,” and “Retromania.” Celebrated as a vibrant hub for contemporary art, the fair attracted both established and emerging artists, with increased visitor numbers compared to the previous year.

Art Karlsruhe, though smaller, continued to gain relevance. The fair impressed with a new concept and clear hall structuring, focusing on classical modern and contemporary art. It attracted around 47,000 visitors, an increase from 2023. The new “re:discover” format, highlighting overlooked artistic positions, received particularly positive feedback.

In Paris, the third edition of the prestigious Art Basel Paris took place in the fall, bringing together 195 galleries from 42 countries. The fair recorded record-breaking sales, including Louise Bourgeois’ sculpture Spider I (1995), which was sold by Hauser & Wirth for $20 million. Two female artists achieved high-priced sales: Julie Mehretu’s Insile (2013) was sold by White Cube for $9.5 million. At Lisson Gallery, works by Olga de Amaral, including Viento Oro (2014), sold for up to $800,000.

Other notable sales included works by Mark Bradford (Not Quite in a Hurry, 2024) for $3.5 million and Barbara Chase-Riboud (Numero Noir #2, 2021) for $2.2 million. Overall, the fair was a great success, attracting over 65,000 visitors—a significant increase compared to 2023.

Art Basel remains the world’s most important art fair. It took place in June 2024 in Basel, attracting over 200 galleries from around the globe. Alongside the main fair, there were also parallel events such as Liste Art Fair and Photo Basel. The fair drew 91,000 visitors—a significant increase from the 82,000 in 2023.

Top sales included Joan Mitchell’s Sunflowers (1990–91), which sold for $20 million at Pace Gallery, and Gerhard Richter’s Abstraktes Bild (2016), sold for $6 million at the David Zwirner booth. These two mega-galleries dominated the high-end market segment. However, the German gallery Sprüth Magers also ranked among the top players, selling, among other works, a large-scale painting by the Italian artist Salvo for €155,000 to a private collection.

Perspectives from Gallerists, Auction Houses, and Art Critics on 2024

Experts and gallerists viewed the 2024 art market as resilient despite challenges like inflation and geopolitical uncertainties. A key trend was the growing importance of online sales and a focus on more affordable artworks, while high-end sales declined. Many anticipate market stabilization in 2025, emphasizing sustainable growth and digital strategies. Dr. Clare McAndrew, cultural economist and author of the Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report, stated: “In 2024, the focus for many businesses shifted from rapid expansion at all costs to seeking sustainable and profitable growth”.

Looking Ahead: The Art Market in 2025

The auction market in 2025 began cautiously, with fewer multimillion-dollar sales. Auction houses are experimenting with new formats, such as online-only auctions, and expanding into other sectors like jewelry, watches, and handbags. The market for Old Masters is also being actively developed.

In Germany, the new reduced VAT rate on art, effective from early 2025, brings optimism. The rate has been lowered from 19% to 7%, potentially stimulating the market, according to galleries and auction houses.

However, the U.S. trade policies under President Trump could pose challenges for the art market in 2025. It’s uncertain whether new tariffs will extend to artworks or if new agreements will stabilize transatlantic art trade. As in politics, the answer may lie in a stronger focus on the European market and local or regional art sales. This trend was evident at the recent Art Cologne, where exhibitors increasingly hailed from Germany and Europe, conducting sales within neighboring countries. Similarly, at the first major European fair of the year, Art Paris at the Grand Palais, the “French Touch” was palpable—nearly half of the new participants were from France, with most other galleries coming from Belgium, Switzerland, and Italy.

Art Basel in June 2025 is set to maintain its international character, expecting a wealthy audience that has historically weathered crises. Visitors can anticipate a promising program and high-caliber exhibitions surrounding the fair.